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Archive for May, 2010

5-24-10 Update-Indicators 1-2

Trend Change Trigger Cancelled

This post is an outdated message kept for historical reference – please refer to the more recent post for an update on indicator #2:

The new UP in Major Marketing Timing Indicator #2 did not trigger today, Monday 5-24-10, so the publisher will stand pat for at least another day.

The stock market fell back into an area where either an UP or DOWN is possible with a large move.  An UP trend appears more probable (not guaranteed) based on the pattern that is forming, but the market may drop further first.

For now, all pending “UP” and “DOWN” indicators for both Indicator #1 and #2 are cancelled – the publisher will wait another day to determine next steps.  If there is no posting for the next one or more days the holding pattern is continuing.

Tired of all of the back and forth?   We’ll always send an e-mail to registered subscribers if an indicator does change.

401ktrend.com does not recommend that its readers, subscribers, or anybody else enter/exit positions, exchange into/from funds, or complete any transaction based on the information on the 401ktrend.com website or any associated communications.

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5-22-10 Warning-Indicator 2

This post is an outdated message kept for historical reference – please refer to the more recent post for an update on indicator #2:

Timing Indicator Change Alert

The picture became clearer with Friday’s upward move.   Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to UP with an intraday break of S&P 500 1091 on Monday 5/24/10.  In other words, if the S&P 500 high for the day is over 1091, the indicator will change to “UP”.  The publisher will move most of his holdings to more aggressive funds with this indicator change.  The probability of a positive move with this indicator change is good, but there is no guarantee.

  • If Indicator #2 does change to up, we will publish a formal “stop loss” level used by the publisher for the position.  (Google search “stop loss order” if you aren’t familiar with this concept). 
  • The stop loss level will be S&P 500 1048 – meaning a close of the market below 1048 will trigger an exit of the positions and will most likely trigger a “DOWN” signal in Indicator #2.
  • The publisher will only use mutual funds & ETF that allow for a quick exit without penalty in the event that the stop loss level does occur.

There is still heightened risk with the market given the annual “calendar-based” market drop risk in May-June, the Europe financial crisis, the banks new fear to lend, and the problems with the companies involved in the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster.

Note that we’ve changed the “HOLD” indicator to “HOLD/REDUCE”, although the triggers for the indicator have not changed.   “HOLD” has always meant “reduce risk”, but that wasn’t clear from the term “HOLD”.

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5-20-10 Warning-Indicators 1-2

This post is an outdated message kept for historical reference – please refer to the more recent post for an update on indicator #2:

We’re in “no man’s land” as of Thursday 5/20/10 – Indicators #1 and #2 are likely to move to DOWN with a further S&P 500 move downward, or both Indicators #1 & #2 will move to new UP signals with enough of a higher move.

Timing Indicator Change Alert

The Major Market Timing Indicator #1 may change to “DOWN” with a S&P 500 close below 1059 on Friday 5/21/10.  The publisher would partially move to cash funds at 3:45PM on Friday with a close below 1059 if he were managing funds with Indicator #1.  (The publisher is currently using Indicator #2 to manage all of his positions).

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 remains on “HOLD/REDUCE”, a “reduced risk position” where downward moves are expected.  The Nasdaq 100 is now down 10.3% since the 4/27/10 change from “UP” to “HOLD/REDUCE”.  Indicator #2 may move to “DOWN” with a continued S&P 500 drop–stay tuned for further updates.

The market is near a point where a significant bounce higher is likely despite the large risk of a change to “DOWN”.   Markets don’t go straight down, and typically do bounce higher after a sustained move downward.

Risk is heightened and the market outlook uncertain given the annual “calendar-based” market drop risk in May-June,  the Europe financial crisis, the banks new fear to lend, and the problems with the companies involved in the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster.

An e-mail notice will be sent to registered users if an indicator DOES change.  Please check this page for new alerts and warnings – an alert e-mail will not be sent for further postings if an indicator does NOT change.

Please don’t hesitate to ask questions by sending an e-mail to mailto:info@401ktrend.com.

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5-15-10 Update-Indicator 1

Indicator #1 (Long-Term) remains on “UP” despite the downward move and very volatile market conditions in early May.     

The Major Market Timing Indicator #1 changed to “UP” on Wednesday 2/17/10.     

The prior signal, the January 17, 2008 “DOWN” in Indicator #1 was very successful – the S&P 500 went down as much as as 46%, while many International Funds went down 50% or more.     

401ktrend.com does not recommend that its readers, subscribers, or anybody else enter/exit positions, exchange into/from funds, or complete any transaction based on the information on the 401ktrend.com website or any associated communications.     

Feb. 2010 401ktrend Timing Indicator Changes - Click Chart For Higher Resolution

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5-15-10 Update-Indicator 2

This post is an outdated message kept for historical reference – please refer to the more recent post for an update on indicator #2:

Indicator #2 (Short-Term) remains on “HOLD/REDUCE”. The “HOLD/REDUCE” indicator was timely, with the market moving sharply lower since the indicator change.  The “HOLD/REDUCE” indicator alerted us to higher risk market conditions before the 1000 point DOW “flash crash” on May 6th.  The publisher moved to more conservative positions before the early May market drop occurred. The original 4/27/10 posting follows:

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 changed to “HOLD/REDUCE” on Tuesday 4/27/10. The publisher will move to more conservative stock mutual fund investments due to this indicator change.

Prior “UP” Indicator ending on 4/28/10 was successful, the indicator closed with the Nasdaq 100 Up 14.5% in just 2 1/2 months.

Please monitor the site and your e-mail for further indicator changes and warnings.  An e-mail alert will be sent to registered readers when a new indicator change occurs.

401ktrend.com does not recommend that its readers, subscribers, or anybody else enter/exit positions, exchange into/from funds, or complete any transaction based on the information on the 401ktrend.com website or any associated communications.

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