6-24-10 Market Indicator 2 Change
The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 changed to DOWN on Thursday 6/24/10, effective at Thursday’s close. The publisher moved most of his holdings to cash funds with the change.
The indicator #2 change to DOWN resulted from a clean break in the UP trend, and not because of a firm “DOWN” trend start. The market direction from here is not clear – a downward or flat move appears likely, but is not guaranteed. The market often goes up during the last 2-5 days of the quarter, so there is a risk of an upward move through July 2nd despite the indicator change. The publisher will stay on the side lines for a few days or weeks until direction becomes more clear (and a new indicator change occurs).
Although the prior UP trend resulted in small gains, the NASDAQ 100 was up 7.6% less than two weeks after the Indicator 2 move to UP.
6-24-10 Indicator 2 Change Alert UPDATE
A slight adjustment to the trigger level for the DOWN indicator #2 change (posted Thursday 9:40AM):
The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to DOWN with a close of the S&P 500 BELOW 1079 on Thursday 6/24/10 or Friday 6/25/10. (The previous trigger level was 1085 – we’ve reduced it from 1085 to 1079).
6-22-10 Indicator 2 Change Alert
Market Timing Indicator Change Alert
The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to DOWN with a close of the S&P 500 BELOW 1085 on Wednesday 6/23/10 or Thursday 6/24/10.
The publisher will move a large majority of his holdings to cash funds if the indicator changes. If the S&P 500 stays above 1085 the publisher will maintain current positions. An update will be posted here on Thursday 6/24/10.
6-13-10 Indicator 2 Performance Update
The 4/27/10 “HOLD/REDUCE” trend in indicator #2 that ended on 6/9/10 was successful – both the S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 were down 11.4% at the end of the “HOLD/REDUCE” indicator.
The publisher has adjusted his positions to 90% aggressive funds, 10% cash funds based on the 6/9/10 “UP” indicator change in Indicator #2. An updated view of all of the year to date 2010 401k trend indicator changes:
2010 401k Trend Indicator Changes - Click Chart to Expand
6-9-10 Market Indicator 2 Change
The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 changed to UP today. The publisher moved part of his holdings to aggressive funds with the change. The publisher will wait for a “higher closing high” to move additional holdings to an aggressive fund. A “higher closing high” is a simple buy signal where the S&P 500 closes higher than the previous day’s high.
The publisher will use a “stop loss” level of 1039 for the position. (Google search “stop loss order” if you aren’t familiar with this concept). A close of the market below 1039 will likely trigger a “DOWN” signal in Indicator #2. If the S&P 500 moves below 1039 during the day but then closes above or near 1039 that same day a “DOWN” indicator will not be generated.
The Europe financial problems and the Gulf of Mexico disaster are continuing to cause unusual market behavior, and a higher risk of further market drop.
6-8-10 Indicator 2 Change Alert
Timing Indicator Change Alert
The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to UP with an intraday break of S&P 500 1067 on Wednesday 6/9/10. In other words, if the S&P 500 high for the day is over 1067, the indicator will change to “UP”. The publisher will move most of his holdings to more aggressive funds with this indicator change.
A new post will appear here Wednesday night by 10PM with an update – please check back.
If Indicator #2 does change to “UP”, we will publish a formal “stop loss” level used by the publisher for the position. (Google search “stop loss order” if you aren’t familiar with this concept). The stop loss level will be S&P 500 1039 – meaning a close of the market below 1039 will likely trigger a “DOWN” signal in Indicator #2.
