6-24-10 Market Indicator 2 Change

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 changed to DOWN on Thursday 6/24/10, effective at Thursday’s close. The publisher moved most of his holdings to cash funds with the change.

The indicator #2 change to DOWN resulted from a clean break in the UP trend, and not because of a firm “DOWN” trend start.   The market direction from here is not clear – a downward or flat move appears likely, but is not guaranteed.  The market often goes up during the last 2-5 days of the quarter, so there is a risk of an upward move through July 2nd despite the indicator change.   The publisher will stay on the side lines for a few days or weeks until direction becomes more clear (and a new indicator change occurs).

Although the prior UP trend resulted in small gains, the NASDAQ 100 was up 7.6% less than two weeks after the Indicator 2 move to UP.