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401ktrend
401k, ETF, and Mutual Fund Market Timing Alerts

Archive for July, 2010

7-29-10 Indicator 2 Status Update

A slight change to the Major Market Timing Indicator #2 stop position due to changing market conditions:  the new stop level is S&P 500 1079.

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7-26-10 Indicator Status Update

Major Market Timing Indicator #2 remains on “UP”.

The publisher is looking for a small pull back or other opportunity to further move from cash to stock fund holdings.  The publisher’s holdings are currently 60% stock funds, 40% cash.  I will send an e-mail alert when I change my holdings.

Effective immediately, the “Stop level” for Major Market Timing Indicator #2 is increased to S&P 500 1089.  A close of the S&P 500 below 1089 will likely trigger an exit of all stock fund positions.

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7-8-10 Market Indicator 2, Indicator 4 Changes

Market Timing Indicator Change

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 AND REIT Index Timing Indicator #4 changed to UP on Thursday 7/8/10 – the conditions for triggering the change to UP for both Indicators occurred on Thursday.

The publisher is moving about half of his holdings from cash to aggressive funds, and will wait to see how the market acts over a few days before investing further.  

Why am I not moving ALL of my holdings to aggressive funds as I have with recent “UP” trend changes in Indicator #2?  Two reasons:

  1. I am more cautious with Indicator #2 “UP” positions when Indicator #1 is “DOWN”.
  2. The market rose a large amount over the 4 days immediately before Indicator #2 moved to “UP” – a small pull back is more likely now.  I will use that pull back to invest more, or stay out if the S&P 500 falls too far.

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7-7-10 Indicator 2 Change Alert

Market Timing Indicator Change Alert

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to UP with a close of the S&P 500 ABOVE 1065 on Thursday 7/8/10.  If the S&P 500 is comfortably above 1065 at 3:45PM on Thursday the indicator change will be effective at the 4PM US market close.

 The publisher will move a majority of his holdings to aggressive funds if the indicator changes.   If the S&P 500 stays below 1065  the publisher will maintain current cash positions.    An update will be posted here on Thursday 7/9/10 before 10PM US Eastern Time.

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7-1-10 Market Indicator 1 Change

The Major Market Timing Indicator #1 changed to DOWN on Thursday 7/1/10 – the conditions for triggering the change to DOWN occurred on Thursday.

The market has fallen for nearly two weeks in a row and is due for a relief rally – some type of upward move is growing more likely in the short-term despite the new DOWN signal.

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7-1-10 Indicator 1 Change Alert

Market Timing Indicator Change Alert

The Major Market Timing Indicator #1 will change to DOWN with a close of the S&P 500 BELOW 1028 on Thursday 7/1/10 or Friday 7/2/10.

Although a “DOWN” indicator change could be triggered on Thursday, the Friday monthly US jobs report may cause a large upward or downward move on Friday.

An update will be posted here Thursday evening 7/1/10 or over the weekend.  A second e-mail notification won’t be provided if the indicator #1 does change to DOWN – please check back here for further updates.

Please note that the publisher is not currently using Indicator #1, and is instead using Indicator #2 for all of his investments:

  • Indicator #2 is much quicker to respond to market moves than Indicator #1, but Indicator #2 requires more account management and a shorter term investing approach.
  • Indicator #1 may be suitable for very long term investing situations.

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