7-8-10 Market Indicator 2, Indicator 4 Changes
Market Timing Indicator Change
The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 AND REIT Index Timing Indicator #4 changed to UP on Thursday 7/8/10 – the conditions for triggering the change to UP for both Indicators occurred on Thursday.
The publisher is moving about half of his holdings from cash to aggressive funds, and will wait to see how the market acts over a few days before investing further.
Why am I not moving ALL of my holdings to aggressive funds as I have with recent “UP” trend changes in Indicator #2? Two reasons:
- I am more cautious with Indicator #2 “UP” positions when Indicator #1 is “DOWN”.
- The market rose a large amount over the 4 days immediately before Indicator #2 moved to “UP” – a small pull back is more likely now. I will use that pull back to invest more, or stay out if the S&P 500 falls too far.
Hi Michael. Are you all in with this move or still only half invested?
I am still 50-60% in aggressive funds, 40-50% cash. I am still waiting for a dip down & move back up to increase aggressive positions (or make a decision to get out). The S&P 500 is having difficulty getting above the 1100-1110 area. If it breaks up through the 1110 level without a dip I may invest more. I’ll send an e-mail when I change my positions (could be down or up).
The news today that the gulf leak is capped could drive the market higher over time – the market has been struggling ever since the disaster started at April’s end. The opposite reaction would be a move higher.
THANKS for posting to the blog Norm!
Thanks Michael. Good info. Looking at the market swings – lower higns / lower lows since April the question seems to be has it shifted from bull to bear. Looks like your #2 indicator has been doing a nice job along the way.