Archive for June, 2011

6-26-2011 Market Indicator Change Alert

Major Market Timing indicator #1:

Indicator #1 remains on “DOWN”, but is likely to move to “UP” some time this week.  An e-mail will be sent out to all subscribers if the indicator changes to “UP”.

Major Market Timing indicator #2:

Indicator #2 remains on “UP”.  A “reiterated” or “new” “UP” indicator will likely occur this week (the week of June 27th).

Please check back for updates.

6-19-2011 Market Indicator Status Update

Major Market Timing indicator #1:

Indicator #1 remains on “DOWN”, but is in an area where a new “UP” trend is likely to occur.

Major Market Timing indicator #2:

Indicator #2 remains on “UP”. The market has been “bouncing up & down” around the area (S&P 500 1288) where the “UP” was triggered. A decisive move below S&P 500 1248 would trigger a new “DOWN” and “stop loss” action.

In the last 3 years a major low for the year and the beginning of a new uptrend occurred in the S&P 500 in last week of June or first week of July. Given the recent 10% drop in the S&P 500, a repeat appears likely in 2011.

6-9-2011 New “UP” in Indicator 2

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 changed to UP on Thursday 6/9/2011, effective at Thursday’s close. The publisher adjusted his holdings to 50% aggressive funds, 50% TIP Bond fund.  The change resulted from an intraday rise above 1288 today. 1288 was yesterday’s high and the trigger level published yesterday.  Here are the scenarios moving forward:

1) The stock market continues higher from here. (Obviously desired)

2) The market drops another 1-3% from here and then rapidly starts a new uptrend. (Happens quite often)

3) The market falls 3%+, in which case the signal may reverse. A close below S&P 1248 (about 3% lower) would likely trigger a reversal.

I will prepare myself for all three of these scenarios, and won’t be surprised by any of them.

I like this setup because the market only has to move about 4% down to reverse – a relatively close distance.

6-8-2011 Market Indicator Change Alert Update

The S&P 500 did not break the trigger level today, a new “UP” indicator was not triggered.  The potential for an indicator change continues, with an updated S&P 500 trigger level.  The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to UP with an intraday break over S&P 500 1288 on Thursday 6/9/11. In other words, if the S&P 500 high for the day is over 1288.00, the indicator will change to “UP”. The publisher will re-allocate part of his holdings to aggressive funds just before the market close on Thursday if the indicator changes; the new publisher allocation will be 50% aggressive funds, 50% Bond fund (TIPs, or treasury inflation protected securities).

6-7-2011 Market Indicator Change Alert

Market Timing Indicator Change Alert

The Major Market Timing Indicator #2 will change to UP with an intraday break over S&P 500 1297 on Wednesday 6/8/11. In other words, if the S&P 500 high for the day is over 1297.00, the indicator will change to “UP”. The publisher will re-allocate part of his holdings to aggressive funds just before the market close on Wednesday if the indicator changes; the new publisher allocation will be 50% aggressive funds, 50% Bond fund (TIPs, or treasury inflation protected securities).