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Archive for July, 2011

7-13-2011 New “UP” in Indicator 1

The Major Market Timing Indicator #1 will change to UP on Thursday 7/14/2011, effective at Thursday’s close. The publisher is adjusting his holdings to 100% stock funds with this change. I typically only move money into stock funds at around 3:30PM (before the market close) on days that the market (S&P 500) closes higher than the previous day’s S&P 500 high – this helps avoid investing in a falling market. Here are the scenarios moving forward.

It’s possible the market will fall 2-5% further from here despite the new “UP”. The market falling below 1248 would likely trigger a reversal back to “DOWN”.

Given the recent bad economic news, I am playing this more conservatively than normal and investing 100% in an S&P 500 Index fund (instead of a more aggressive technology fund).

 

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7-10-2011 Market Indicator Status Update

Major Market Timing indicator #2:

Indicator #2 remains on “UP”. The indicator change to “UP” on 6/9/2011 did precede a large move up in the markets, with the Nasdaq 100 up 6.6% in the month following the change.

Major Market Timing indicator #1:

Indicator #1 remains on “DOWN”, but is in an area where a new “UP” trend may occur. We are waiting for a pull back to trigger the change to “UP”. Given the negative US employment report on Friday, we may see the pull back this week.

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6-30-2011 Market Indicator Change Alert

On Thursday 6/30/2011 a new “UP” trend was indicated in Major Market Indicator #1; however, the change comes after 4 straight days of gains in the S&P 500, and a very short term indicator I watch (non-published) is indicating that a small pull back is likely.

We’ll wait until our short-term indicator is also indicating “UP” to change the Major Market Indicator #1 to “UP”. In the meanwhile we’ll display the indicator as “UP Pending”.  I will send an e-mail when the indicator changes.

It appears relatively safe to move some funds into stock funds during the “UP Pending” stage, and I will do so myself – particularly on any “down” market day.

I plan to be in 100% stock funds once Indicator #1 moves to “UP”. Bond/cash funds are risky now, as Bonds appear very overpriced and the US dollar is at risk of further decline.

 

 

 

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