Performance

Indicator #1: "Major Market Timing Indicator – Long-Term” Performance:

Performance for Popular Funds Fund Families or
Indexes Included		 ETF and Fund Symbols
Major Index Exchange Traded Fund Performance – SPY, IWM, QQQQ, IWM, and others iShares, SPDR’s, HOLDR’s, and Diamonds:Dow 30, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000, MSCI EAFE, MSCI Australia SPY, SPX, DIA, DJX, QQQQ, NDX, IWM, RUT, DWC, VTI, EWA, EPP, EWS, EWJ
Aggressive (Ultra) Profunds Performance – QLD, SSO, etc. Profunds,
Proshares ETFs		 UOPIX, UAPIX, UMPIX, UDPIX, UJPIX, UNPIX, UUPIX, ULPIX, ROM, USD, SSO, DDM, MVV, UWM, QLD
Fidelity – Commonly Held Fund Performance – FDGRX, FDCAX, FCNTX, etc. Fidelity Funds,
Franklin Funds		 FMAGX, FOSFX, FEQIX, FGRIX, FPURX, FBALX, FDCAX, FCNTX, FBGRX, FDGRX, FLPSX, FDIVX, FDGFX, FUSEX, FSMKX, FRIAX, FSTMX, FSIIX, FSEMX, FDVIX
     

Why do you give performance for the several of the indexes (Wilshire 5000, Vanguard total market and others) beginning in 2000 or 2001 instead of using 1985 (the start date for the S&P 500 index performance)?

The first date for the ETFs that start after 1985 is typically the date that the particular ETF was started.

Indicator #2: "Major Market Timing Indicator – Short-Term” History:

  1. The indicator changes may include comments on what the publisher is doing with his fund allocation, and those comments can partially conflict with the indicator on occasion. The publisher stated he was staying invested in stock funds on the 5/13/10 Down signal, and market continued higher afterwards.
  2. If you measure any system based on entering long positions on "Buy" signals and exiting on "Sell" signals, you may not be looking at the bigger picture. “Buy” signals can be accurately identified a large majority of the time, while “Sell” signals are less accurate – an investing approach must be adjusted accordingly to maximize returns. “HOLD/REDUCE” indicators provide the ability to move to conservative positions that will profit if the market continues up, but minimize losses if the market goes down.
Date Indicator #2 Change Publisher Comment
7/16/2008 Down  
9/9/2008 Up  
9/26/2008 Down Change from "UP" to "DOWN" occurred one week before the October 2008 financial melt-down and stock market crash.  The DOW 30 dropped 3000 points in the two weeks after the indicator change.
3/10/2009 Up New "UP" indicator occurred two days after the March 2009 decade market low.
5/13/2009 Down Publisher commented he was remaining invested in conservative stock funds despite “DOWN”.  The market continued higher.
2/10/2010 Up "UP" occurred two days after the early 2010 market low.
4/27/2010 Hold/Reduce Effective on 4/28 close.  The indicator change from "UP" to "HOLD/REDUCE" occurred three days before a 2000 point DOW crash.
6/9/2010 Up The market (S&P 500) rose 7.6% in 2 weeks after signal before falling.
6/24/2010 Down The market (S&P 500) fell 5% in the week after the signal before reversing
7/8/2010 Up The market (S&P 500) rose 5% in the month after the “UP” before reversing.
8/12/2010 Down Failed signal – the market rose substantially without a new “UP”.  The publisher posted that he would keep 35% of investments in stock funds during the signal.
2/23/2011 Down The market (S&P 500) bounced around in the same area for four months, ending virtually unchanged in June 2011.   Capitalized by keeping money in bond funds during this period – TIP bond funds rose 4-5%.
6/9/2011 Up  
     

The publisher made a slight adjustment to the system after the “early” 5/13/2009 Down indicator. With this adjustment, the indicator would have remained on “UP” until early January 2010.

I found another market timer site (fee-based) that appears to have good performance.  Should I select that provider?

  1. How many trades per year does the system have?  The system may have 8-20 trades per year and often have 3+ trades in a single month!   It requires very frequent trading to get those returns.   One site intended for 401k users had 17 trades in the last two years!  Virtually everyone using their system would have their 401k account trading privileges revoked due to the frequent trading.   You may find yourself in a difficult position if your 401k mutual fund exit ability is revoked when you are fully invested in a high risk fund.   The 401k Trend market timing system is designed for less frequent position changes.
  2. What trading and subscription fees are incurred?   If trading ETF’s in a Roth IRA:  17 trades would have required $300 in commissions for a single ETF on top of the $200 subscription fee.   If you were trading two ETF’s instead of one, you would have incurred $800 in commissions and subscription fees in a two year period.
  3. How much real-time history is provided?   Some sites advertise 10 years worth of history, but only 2-3 years are based on real-time market conditions.
  4. Does the system beat a simple S&P 500 index fund Buy & Hold strategy?  Some do not.
  5. Performance data for mutual funds should be calculated based on entering/exiting trades at the market close the next trading day after the signal change date.  Some services calculate performance based on entering trades at the market open – not an accurate measurement.

If the system you are evaluating passes these tests and the subscription cost is right for you, then it sounds like you should try the service!   We are interested in evaluating proven systems – send us an e-mail at info@401ktrend.com if you find one that passes the tests.

Indicator #4: "REIT Index Timing Indicator" Performance: (For Real Estate Mutual Fund Market Timing)

REIT Index Indicator Fund Performance – Fidelity Profunds Phoenix IYR plus Others

 

Popular Mutual Fund and ETF Site Links:

  1. Vanguard ETFs
  2. Vanguard Index Funds
  3. Fidelity Index Funds
  4. Money Magazine – Best Mutual Funds and ETFs
  5. Proshares Index ETFs